Winter will not end in the United States and Alberto Fernández would have already starred in his first bilateral meeting with Donald Trump. At least that is the expectation that exists in Washington regarding a probable official visit that the future president of Argentina would make to the White House.
In addition to his meeting with Trump, Fernández intends to meet with Kristina Georgieva, brand new managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and David Malpass, head of the World Bank. Likewise, a visit to the Capitol and the possibility of a conference on Latin America in a prestigious academic center in Washington DC are not ruled out.
Trump agreed with the fleeting dialogue with Fernandez, and that is why he enabled the preparation of an official tour that could take place in February. The date is not random: the next Peronist government needs to reassess the foreign debt with the IMF and the bondholders under foreign legislation, and a conclave with Trump in the Oval Hall would improve Argentina's position at the negotiating table.RELATED
In Washington they wait for Fernández to know his opinions regarding the internal logic of his government and the forward projection of his international agenda. They are interested in knowing if Cristina Fernández de Kirchner will influence the decisions of the Executive Power and to what extent Argentina will modify her perspective in foreign relations.
When Cristina Fernández was in Balcarce 50, diplomatic relations with the United States were traumatic. Chancellor Héctor Timerman's decision to violate an FBI diplomatic bag and the signing of the Memorandum with Iran for the AMIA cause – to name two important facts – froze the link between Buenos Aires and Washington, outside the common agenda in matters of Security, intelligence and drug trafficking.
From this perspective, Fernández will be able to explain in the Oval Room what he repeats as a litany when he receives the protagonists of the establishment in his offices in Mexico Street: Cristina does not participate in government decisions, although she is a permanent consultant for her knowledge of power and the operation of the State.
The CFK Factor is no less for Trump and the White House. Fernández must maximize his ability to convince in a matter that can mark the relations of his government with the Republican administration.
The future president of Argentina was Chief of Staff of Nestor Kirchner during the Summit of the Americas in Mar del Plata, and on that occasion George Bush left the Atlantic Coast on fire for speeches against the FTAA and the populist act that starred Diego Maradona.
If Fernandez explains well in the White House, leveraged on Trump's extreme pragmatism, everything will have remained in a diplomatic incident with little collateral damage.
In addition to domestic policy and the eventual influence of CFK, in Washington they want to know about Fernández's international agenda. When he was a presidential candidate of the Frente de Todos, Fernández proposed a possible resignation of Argentina to the Lima Group and an alternative plan to try to resolve the crisis in Venezuela.
Trump bets on the Lima Group and does not want Nicolás Maduro sitting at the negotiating table, a geopolitical position that clashes head-on with the ideas Fernandez proposes to initiate an orderly transition in Venezuela towards free and transparent elections.
In this context, the president-elect landed in Mexico. Fernández is planning a summit with Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) and his intention is to propose to the Mexican president to join forces with Uruguay to change the logic of negotiation in the face of the dramatic situation in Venezuela.
Fernández believes that the proposal that predominates in the Lima Group does not lead anywhere and that the decisions of the interim president Juan Guaidó do not serve to guarantee an orderly transition. Undoubtedly, his probable bilateral meeting with Trump will explain why he is holding this position and hear that the president of the United States believes that, in principle, Maduro cannot be part of the negotiating table.
Trump said during the ten-minute talk he had with Fernandez that he had already spoken with the IMF, and now he waits for the future president of Argentina to describe what his economic program will be like. The White House prefers plans supported by free trade and the possibility of remitting the profits obtained. Pure capitalism that Trump applies to the fullest.
However, the president of the United States has a more important concern: to prevent China's influence from strengthening in the region. Trump knows that CFK granted the installation of the Asian power base and that Xi Jinping could support Argentine finances through continued investments in national territory.
This geopolitical concern of Trump, coupled with the mechanisms that are analyzed to evict Maduro from power, influence the final position that the United States will assume on the board of the International Monetary Fund when the Argentine case is dealt with.
Trump promised support in the transition and during the first weeks of the Fernandez administration. But that support can be dissipated or strengthened according to the results of the summit that will be held in the Oval Hall. That day, they say in Washington, it will be very important for the government led by Fernandez.