Joe Biden should be celebrating. It is a year since the elections that took him to the White House and he has also just signed up the greatest achievement of his presidency so far: a megaley to spend 865,000 million euros on infrastructure. And yet the president does not seem very festive. Biden suffers in polls, Democrats are divided and the specter of Trump’s return is more than present.
Perhaps the most disorienting thing for Democrats is that they are unclear about what is wrong. Since Biden has been president, there are almost three million unemployed less, the bag goes fired and the distribution of vaccines has been quick and efficient. Why then do Americans give it a fail? Since he took office, his popularity has dropped 10 points and there are already many more citizens who disapprove of his management than those who approve. There can be several different factors.RELATED
It is true that Biden is also a victim of the strange conditions in which he has come to power. The normal thing before Trump was for any president to take office with an approval 70% and not that the country remained equally divided before and after the elections. Biden entered the White House two weeks after the assault on the Capitol and one third The country still believes that it did so through fraud. In other words, Biden had a much lower ceiling from which to begin the fall that all presidents suffer.
With the exception of George W. Bush, who received a massive support After 9/11, it is normal for presidents to fall from the moment they are elected to crashing in the midterm elections, the key is if they take off long enough to ensure re-election in the next two years. The bitter defeat of the Democrats in Virginia just days ago stings especially because Biden swept there a year ago, but it is difficult to deny that it is part of the usual script: the party that wins the White House has lost in Virginia the following year for more than 40 years.
Biden arrived promising a return to normalcy and this is, in part, normality. The same can be said of the infighting within his party that prevents the president from moving forward and taking advantage of the first two years of his term, those in which he usually has the best chance of passing reforms before the Republicans can regain a majority in some of both houses of Congress and can easily block all your initiatives. Trump united all opposition currents with fire, but the normality is that it is difficult to agree on icons of the left such as the congresswoman Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez
To score a win and to be approved In his infrastructure program, Biden has had to draw on the support of a handful of moderate Republicans and leave behind some of his party’s most left-wing elements who believe the law is not ambitious enough. And even so, it is likely that if it has come out ahead it has been because the defeat in Virginia has scared many Democratic legislators, who had been stuck in internal negotiations on the matter for months although they have the majority.
The shadow of former President Trump is long and, if he runs again in 2024, Democratic unity around Biden is likely to resurface with force. However, as the memory of the former president fades and the shocks of his term are further away, Biden finds it more difficult to remind Americans of his main electoral message: normality, efficiency, reliability … a story that disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan put to the test and he has not recovered.
If we take for example the management of the coronavirus, the argument that Biden used nonstop Against Trump, we see that the Americans clearly expected more from him than efficient vaccine delivery. In his first days in the White House, almost 70% approved of his management of the pandemic, but that figure has collapsed more than twenty points. It’s a vicious cycle: low vaccination rates in some states They hinder the recovery, but many times it is the speeches of the Republicans themselves that encourage not to get vaccinated.
Yet by far the most worrying aspect for Biden is the economy. Despite the good evolution of unemployment and other indicators, the confidence of Americans is sunk and no less than 60% of citizens believe that the president you are not paying enough attention to it. Economic management is almost always the most important electoral factor and it is especially so for independent voters (neither Democrats nor Republicans), the group that made Biden win the last elections. The Americans used to suspend Trump on all matters of his tenure except that one, so if Biden fails to change the opinion of the voters on this matter, he will be opening the door to his predecessor.