DENVER (AP) – The results of Super Tuesday, the longest day on the primary calendar, have reformulated the campaign for the Democratic presidential bid in a way that few would have anticipated a couple of weeks ago.
Some conclusions of the results.RELATED
THE BLOOMBERG CHECKS ARE RETURNED
Mike Bloomberg bet $ 500 million that the Joe Biden campaign would falter. But the former vice president gained momentum on Super Tuesday, the series of primaries in which Bloomberg had pledged his candidacy. The following morning, Bloomberg abandoned the contest and endorsed Biden.
“Three months ago, I started the presidential campaign to defeat Donald Trump,” Bloomberg said in a statement. “Today I leave the campaign for the same reason: to defeat Donald Trump. Because it is clear to me that continuing would make it difficult to achieve that goal. ”
Your next steps are unclear. He had vowed to keep his campaign offices open in crucial states to help the Democratic nominee, even if not him, beat Trump. But Senator Bernie Sanders’ campaign has rejected his help.
BIDEN REPUNTA FORCE
It’s hard to overstate the speed and magnitude of Biden’s rally. After the humiliations of Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, many Democrats began looking for an alternative.
The resounding victory in South Carolina improved his prospects, but it came to Super Tuesday, when 14 states held their primaries, with few funds and little infrastructure.
Bloomberg’s bulky gamble was counting on Biden to falter. Sanders had his own litmus test, not in a small state like South Carolina but in the largest, California.
But Sanders’ apparent strength and Bloomberg’s weakness threw many Democrats into the arms of Biden, who within 24 hours gained the backing of three former rivals. With them he was able to catch that elusive phenomenon called impulse.
The contest appears to be aimed at a state-by-state definition, based on his conflicting views of what Democrats must do to beat Trump in November.
SANDERS CONTINUE SOLVED
Sanders won the jackpot of the night, California, a state to which he had devoted significant time and effort while Biden ran a minimalist campaign. It was a sample of Sanders’ strategic sharpness, the reason why he is such a fearsome opponent.
There and in Texas, where he finished second, he knew how to build a coalition that included young and Latino voters.
California was a crucial victory for Sanders, but lost in several states where his campaign discounted victory, from Minnesota to Massachusetts. Sanders’ campaign bets that, with a divided electorate, his staunch base would lead him to a series of victories across the country.
The weaknesses of that theory came to light on Super Tuesday.
He lost in Minnesota and Oklahoma, two white majority states where he beat Hillary Clinton in 2016. This is an indication of white base erosion from his previous campaigns. In his own Vermont state, he won by less than the expected difference.
His situation is similar to that of four years ago: an insurgent challenger with an unconditional base against the party establishment favorite.
His national presence, the loyalty of his base and his good fundraising indicate that his position remains strong after the setbacks of Super Tuesday. But perhaps he should change his focus instead of continuing to rant against the party leaders whose voters will decide if he is their candidate.
WARREN’S PLAN TO WIN LOSES
Senator Elizabeth Warren did not win a single state Tuesday and finished in a humiliating third place in her Massachusetts state.
His previously ascending campaign follows a downward trajectory and even leaves it last in several states.
On Tuesday night he made his usual Michigan speech as if nothing had changed.
Her supporters hope she gets enough delegates to be a factor and even a consensus candidate at a negotiated convention. But the candidates are running for the presidency. Not to mediate at a convention.
In the next few hours, he would meet with his advisers to decide if he is still in the race.
EVERYTHING DEPENDS ON THE DELEGATE COUNT
Those who choose the candidate are not the states but the delegates. And it may be days, even weeks, before you know exactly how many each have.
The count in California, with a whopping 415 delegates, is extremely slow. In his system, ballots mailed the same day as the vote count, too, and the count could end no sooner than April.
Other states like Colorado are also very slow. This could hurt Sanders in the long run, as the count in the eastern states, where Biden won, is much faster, which would help cement the image of the former vice president’s rebound.
The Democratic constituency has spent 15 months in a state of paralysis, with voters distressed to determine which of the numerous and diverse delegates was best suited to beat Trump. On Tuesday, a third of Democrats had to make a decision. Many of those who waited until the last moment leaned for Biden.
Much of the electorate – a quarter in Texas, more than half in Minnesota – was undecided, according to AP VoteCast. In North Carolina and Minnesota, half voted for Biden. Two-thirds of them did in Virginia. Biden won all three states.
For much of the cycle, Democrats were undecided. If they continue to lean towards Biden after Super Tuesday, they could give him a crucial advantage.