Although many countries are already considering reducing social distancing measures to curb the coronavirus, they may need to take longer than expected in the event that effective drugs or a vaccine are not found. It is what sustains a study prepared by experts and published in science magazineAccording to which, if these conditions are present, we would have to extend the protocol until 2022.
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“Infections spread when there are two things: infected and susceptible people,” he told The Guardian Marc Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology at Harvard and co-author of the study. “Predicting the end of the pandemic in the summer [de 2020] it’s not consistent with what we know about the spread of infection, “he added.
There is currently a medical race from countries around the world to find a way to fight the coronavirus. However, the experts’ text assures that the case of not finding an adequate palliative “surveillance and social distancing may need to be maintained in 2022.”
One of the aspects that research takes into account is the duration of immunity of infected people. It is still unknown, but there could be two scenarios: that immunity is permanent and COVID-19 disappears after five years or more after the first outbreak; or that the antibodies are only effective one year and we have an annual cycle of outbreaks. The latter case is the most frequent with other types of coronavirus.
The study considers many possible scenarios, but they all have one thing in common: that a coronavirus outbreak would appear after the restrictions were lifted. Still, like many other scientific reports, it takes time to verify the content.
“It is important to note that the study is consistent with current data but is nonetheless based on a number of assumptions, for example about acquired immunity, that have not yet been confirmed. Therefore, it should be considered to suggest possible scenarios rather than making firm predictions, “Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, told The Guardian.
