Despite Covid-19, There Is Room For Optimism (Analysis)

Opinion: the pandemic will not end until 2024 4:30

(WAB NEWS) – Poll of the Week: A new Axios / Ipsos poll found that 63% of adults say they will get or are likely to get the covid-19 vaccine as soon as it is available to them. That is the highest figure ever recorded by Ipsos.

When given the option to get the vaccine right away or at a later date, 50% of Americans say they will get it as soon as it is available compared to a later date. That is also the highest percentage ever recorded by Ipsos.


What is the point? No one would blame you for being depressed about the coronavirus. More than 450,000 people in total have died from COVID-19 in the United States, including about 100,000 in the last month alone. There have been more than 25 million cases of covid-19 in the country, and an untold number of lives and businesses have changed.

Furthermore, we do not know what point effects the new variants of the virus will have in terms of cases and deaths in the United States.

However, there are at least some reasons for optimism. The number of people getting the coronavirus is decreasing, and the number of people getting vaccinated is increasing and will only continue to increase as more and more vaccines become available.

Bloomberg: US would vaccinate 75% of its population in 11 months 0:49

The number of new COVID-19 cases, while still high at around 130,000 on the seven-day daily moving average through Friday, has dropped quite dramatically in recent weeks. Nationally, there has been a drop of around 30% in the moving average during the last 14 days. You would have to go back about three months to early November to see the number of new cases so low.

The number of daily cases has decreased in virtually every state in recent weeks. In most states, the decline has been considerable (unsurprisingly given what we’re seeing nationally).

More importantly, the number of people hospitalized has also decreased. It has dropped more than 20% in recent weeks.

The decline in hospitalizations is key because more hospitalizations are generally followed by more deaths.

Right now, deaths are still too high and haven’t dropped as dramatically, but if past trends are followed, eventually they will.

The fact that cases have decreased more than hospitalizations could mean that hospitalizations could decrease even more.

Of course, current trends do not necessarily translate into future trends in cases.

However, for now, the number of people who get vaccinated every day easily exceeds the number of new cases each day.

A few weeks ago I noticed that President Joe Biden’s goal of delivering 100 million doses in 100 days was far too modest. So far, the statistics have shown that to be true.

The daily average of new vaccines given to people is well above 1.2 million since Biden took office.

We want that number to go up. With a 2-shot regimen required for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, 1.2 million vaccines a day just won’t get us back to normal anytime soon. There are more than 255 million adults in this country.

The good news is that it was announced last week that there would be a 16% weekly increase in the number of vaccines available to states.

This increase is likely to only rise further in the next two months. Keep in mind, Pfizer and Moderna are due to deliver 220 million combined doses by the end of March. Much of that is expected to ship by the end of March, according to Andy Slavitt, a White House adviser on the response to COVID-19.

And from there, the number of doses should only go up more, and according to Pfizer the company will give a total of 200 million doses in the US by the end of May and for its part Moderna reported that it is on its way to 200 million by the end of June.

Biden announced that the U.S. ordered another 200 million combined doses of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines that should be delivered by the end of the summer.

In addition, Johnson and Johnson applied to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for an emergency authorization for their single-dose vaccine and has said they will have 100 million doses available by the end of June.

In all, there should be enough vaccines for 300 million people by the end of June, if Johnson and Johnson receive emergency clearance. Otherwise, it will be until the end of the summer that we have vaccines (600 million from Pfizer and Moderna) to cover 300 million people, enough to cover all Americans over the age of 18.

If vaccines are there, then the challenge is getting the vaccine into the arms of Americans. Judging by the rate of vaccines given to people available, we are now doing a much better job than ever.

And while there are still unfortunate racial disparities as to who is willing to accept it (that is, black and Hispanic people still lag behind), the number of people generally willing to accept it continues to rise in survey data.

There is a light at the end of the long dark tunnel. We won’t get there anytime soon, but there is reason to believe we will.