Donald Trump tweets at any time, all the time. At dawn, at midnight, he seems to be always on the lookout to punish his opponents, launch memes, or highlight interviews or events. But for the first time it was silently called for many hours before a fact that shocked the world: Iran admitted that it accidentally shot down the Ukrainian plane that took off from the Tehran airport that caused the deaths of 176 people and the international horror.
Trump, always so talkative about everything, just tweeted about the election campaign, noting that he has 95% approval within the Republican party and 53% overall.
In a chaotic presidency, in which, among other things, no one can control the tireless presidential tweet on any nimio or fundamental issue, the unusual mutism of Trump and his ministers on Iran indicates that the president has received news that greatly benefits him in a moment key, in a key year.
Trump was going through a complicated January in a fundamental 2020 for the goal of presidential re-election in November. Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi will send articles to the Senate next week to start the impeachment through the Ukraine-gate.
While it is certain that the upper house will absolve him (there the Republicans have a comfortable majority), the spectacle of venting their maneuvers in the White House is not the most convenient.
When the operation against Suleimani was launched, many in Washington read it as a distracting maneuver from Trump before the congressional trial, especially when it was learned that on the same day he had also tried to eliminate Abdul Reza Shahlai, an Iranian commander in Yemen.
Trump had great resistance in Parliament. Pelosi described Suleimani's murder as "provocative and disproportionate" and sought to limit the president's powers to attack without legislative authorization. An uncontrollable escalation was feared in an explosive zone unleashed by Trump's imprudence.
The United States and Iran sought to loosen the tension. While Tehran attacked US bases, it did “surgically,” without US victims, something that could have unleashed the trump rage. The plane's disaster focused elsewhere.
How could it happen? An expert had already anticipated Clarin on Thursday. Retired brigadier Michael McDaniel, professor and director of Homeland Security programs at Western Michigan University law school Thomas Cooley, said: “A commercial plane is a slow moving target compared to a military plane, so definitely is within the capacity of a Gauntlet SA 15 ”missile.
And he risked a hypothesis that later proved: Iranian missile launchers were on alert because they expected an attack from the United States after Iran attacked US military bases in Iraq hours earlier. “The SA 15 is a defensive weapon against air attacks. Therefore, it would not be uncommon to consider that an Iranian air defense team mistakenly perceived the Boeing as an American military aircraft, despite the obvious differences. ”
Remains of the Ukrainian plane, in which 176 people were traveling, which crashed shortly after taking off from the Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran.
With the attack on Suleimani, Trump sought a blow of firmness and popularity, similar to that obtained by his predecessor Barack Obama with the elimination of Osama bin Laden. But he didn't have the overwhelming result he expected.
An Ipsos / USA Today survey of January 7 and 8 showed that Americans supported the death of the Iranian commander 42% to 33%, but 55% said the attack had made the United States less secure, against 22% that He claimed otherwise.
When the consequences threatened to lose heart and criticism in the US they grew, the admission of the demolition of the plane lowers Tehran's thirst for revenge and places Iran before the American public as an irresponsible state capable of committing any crime against innocents. Beyond the fact that the White House finds it beneficial for the Iranian regime to be internally affected by this tragedy, in an election year it is important how Americans decode it.
Trump does not need to tweet now and adopted a low profile when words are left over and he needs to reduce tension. Now you will sail calmly the waters of the impeachment that will begin to stir in the coming weeks.
11 months after the elections, he says in his favor that the economy is going strong, that he has put the trade war with China with a “first phase” agreement for the freezer and that the Democrats do not yet have a firm candidate for the view. At least for now, it's a happy new year for Trump.
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