Donald Trump And His Love Party

"There was a lot of friction between the United States and China, and now it's a love party. That's a good thing." Donald Trump

If they made me choose only one word to define my profession, stock market investment, I would probably opt for "boldness." Although true, there are many other words that could come into play, such as determination, perseverance, cunning, conviction, and something similar to intuition.

But "boldness" is the word that best suits that common feature that every stock trader should share. Audacity is nothing more than the ability to undertake unusual actions without fearing the difficulties or the risk that arise from them, in other words: it is the courage to make decisions with determination, knowing in advance knowledgeable of a high degree of reliability, which denotes clear conviction and liveliness to know how to read between the lines and feel comfortable in the face of adversity, which in the world of the stock market is nothing more than volatility. If we add to this the long-term record, we are winners.


There are times when a trader must decide whether to join the current or remain firm in his convictions

Last week the good feelings transmitted by the market during the month of September were questioned, due to a new wave of sales that left us doubtful about any bullish argument defended by Mr. Market, and were not few during the month past. As I explained in my last forum of opinion, there are times when a professional trader must decide between joining the current, panicking as a result of volatility, or staying firm in his convictions boldly.

Guess which of them is my favorite … In turn I suggested buying Renault shares, as I currently consider it safer than buying their bonds, and I reaffirm. Mainly, because buying long-term Renault shares I will receive more “Free Cash Flow Yield”, than buying “Yield Bonds”. Traditional companies that give some comfort to our society are cheap and this is the best guarantee we have, better guarantee than the happy fashions, the raucous euphoria and panic. So, what last week seemed destined to end in a hard Brexit and an escalation in the commercial war, has ended with a declaration of love between Donald Trump and Beijing, and a Brexit that seems geared towards a smooth solution. Do you doubt it? No one is interested in this ending badly, and more knowing that Trump is obliged to sell a victory in the commercial war to public opinion. Victoria that only translates into a great deal with China.

And who doesn't like declarations of love … Well, these don't end in Beijing. Jerome Powell, president of the FED, once again pleased the markets leaving for its poor successor that of raising interest rates and resuming tapering … Without explicitly citing the word Quantitative Easing, the Federal Reserve proposes to expand the balance at reason of 60,000 million dollars a month. With the central banks at full capacity in their new industrial function of manufacturing banknotes, it is not surprising the good behavior of the paper mills in 2018 … With the geopolitical tensions in the process of solution and the business results on the table, the economy and the markets only need a milestone to burst the technical resistance and resume a bullish movement in confirmation in the USA and Europe, which since 2010 we have only lived during 2012, 2013 and 2016. A declaration of love from the European States to the budget deficit, would serve to continue to feed the markets in charge of the taxpayer. What a face and bold is ignorance!

Nobody is interested in this ending badly, and more knowing that Trump is obliged to sell a victory in the commercial war to public opinion

I believe that the exchanges are at a key moment, and after a long lateral process, the resistances are directly facing a voracious market with the desire for more. In Blackbird we believe that the time has come to try and above all, I recommend monitoring it, how? For example with the ETF with ticker BNK (Eurostoxx 600 Banks). Quotes above € 18 would mark the confirmation that the side market has been completed, and a new bull market emerges in Europe. Once again, in the face of extreme pessimism, fear and pain, the market is reborn! And as I said at the beginning of my grandstand today, fearlessness and not fear is the one who will always lead the way. A steep road, but not without love at all.



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