Last Friday, January 3, Donald Trump – and the United States – dealt a severe blow to human rights, international law and world stability when he tried, condemned and executed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. It was at night when the death sentence signed by Donald Trump was executed: an MQ-9 Reaper drone – twenty meters wide and eleven meters long – bombed the Iranian convoy that left Baghdad airport with missiles. The vehicles were turned into a burning mass and the bodies were torn apart. In total, nine people were killed.
The United States quickly assumed responsibility for the crime and justified it in future actions that did not occur: General Soleimani was preparing attacks against US diplomats. Minority report In addition, the death of a contractor on December 27 in Baghdad or the death of hundreds of Americans and coalition members – unspecified – was used as an argument to sustain the attack. Mike Pompeo said he "had in his hands the blood of hundreds of American lives."
General Qassem Soleimani was, most likely, the second most powerful man in Iran. As commander of the elite force Al Quds of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was in charge of Iranian military operations abroad, hence his presence in Iraq.RELATED
Luis Gonzalo Segura, former member of the Spanish Army.
It is undeniable that the murder of General Soleimani is the first pre-campaign act of 2020, election year in the US. The question is not minor, just remember that the two wars in Iraq occurred in the year before the general elections
After the crime, the United States announced the dispatch of 3,500 military personnel to Iraq, which will join the 5,200 permanently assigned soldiers and the 750 who had been sent preventively in recent days. It will almost double its presence in the area. Military movement of no small consideration on the regional board.
The Iranian response: two US military bases attacked in Iraq
In response, Iran attacked this morning – between 1:45 and 2:45 local time – with 22 ballistic missiles – 15 according to Iranian media – two US military bases in Iraq, in the center —Ain Al Asad— and the north —Erbil— of the country. The attack was closed without fatalities due, above all, to the fact that the Iranians themselves officially warned the Iraqi authorities of the attacks and that these would be limited to areas in which the US military was present.
In addition, Hasan Rohaní, president of Iran, said that more attacks would occur, as these did not constitute a sufficient revenge and the ultimate goal can only be to expel the United States from the region. Statements that, together with those of many other Iranian authorities, should be analyzed in the context of the existing high regional tension.
As if that weren't enough, on the convulsed stage, the plane of the Ukrainian Boeing 737 flies over, so far 176 people died just after taking off from Tehran. Iranian authorities point to a fire before the incident, but no theory is ruled out.
The first act of the pre-campaign
There is little certainty about what will happen in the future, especially because the scenario is currently devilish and because Donald Trump is completely unpredictable, but it is undeniable that the murder of General Soleimani is the first pre-campaign act of 2020, election year in the United States. United. The point is not minor, just remember that the two wars in Iraq occurred in the year before the general elections – the first in the beginning of 1991 when the elections were in 1992 and the second in March 2003 when the elections were in 2004—.
In fact, different Western media claim that Soleimani was an objective of both George W. Bush and Barack Obama, but both declined to kill him for fear that this could lead to a war with Iran. When Donald Trump ordered his murder, he was therefore fully aware of the risk of execution. Execution that, in addition, is added to an endless list of provocations since it decided to rise from the nuclear agreement signed in 2015 with Iran, which caused an escalation of sanctions and tension.
The bellicose attitude of the top American leader with Iran – not only in this case, but in the years he leads the United States – has generated numerous criticisms in the West, including the top leaders of Germany and France in the years past On this occasion, the criticisms, although sometimes veiled, have been massive – United Kingdom, Germany, France, Russia … -. The European Union has not only called for moderation, but also once again outlined the importance of the nuclear agreement and the need to return to the negotiating table.
Luis Gonzalo Segura, former member of the Spanish Army.
The new sanctions, although they have been cataloged by Western media as a minor response, almost as a magnanimous gesture, represent a considerable increase in pressure that, at this point, is almost unsustainable.
Donald Trump – who has reported promptly from Twitter, as usual – has again increased tension by implementing new sanctions against Iran following the Persians' response to the assassination of General Soleimani. Something that, although it has been cataloged by Western media as a minor response, almost as a magnanimous gesture, the truth is that it represents a considerable increase in a pressure that, at this point, is almost unsustainable.
On the edge of asymmetric warfare
The irresponsibility of the American leader not only generates distrust in almost the entire planet, including its traditional allies, but also in the United States generates numerous misgivings. Such is the situation that Nancy Pelosi called the attack disproportionate and provocative, which, according to her vision, would have endangered US diplomats and military.
Due to this erratic foreign policy developed by Trump, especially in the case of Iran, the Democrats will present – through Tim Kaine – a resolution in Congress to cease US military actions in thirty days with respect to Iran, unless the Congress manifests in the opposite direction. It is an attempt to control the powers of war that the Constitution grants to the president of the US, powers that were never conceived to be handled by a rampant tweeter.
The current situation seems that it will not reach, for now, the elderly, but in the case of continuing to increase the tension this could lead to a war. Which would be characterized in the short term by its asymmetry and the Iranian potential, which would cause attacks of unpredictable consequences on its most important regional enemies – Saudi Arabia and Israel.
However, the most important consequences of the conflict, which might allow the re-election of Donald Trump, would be devastating in the Middle East, a region that has not yet been able to recover from the damage caused by the United States in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria – not forgetting the creation of the Islamic State. In addition, the war conflict would cause a greater influence of Russia and Vladimir Putin in the region, which if today has become the most relevant geopolitical actor, after a war conflict repeatedly caused by the United States, they would be the only reference Factual and moral of the region.