The year 2019 ends with Donald Trump at the gates of being tried in the Senate for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. But nothing is said yet, especially when the election campaign is already in the making.
It is almost a fact that Trump will not be dismissed but it is not yet clear that he will effectively get reelected. The Argentine political analyst, Hernán Molina, who has been based in the United States for more than two decades, tells this newspaper about the ‘impeachment’ and what is coming for the president in 2020.
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– Trump ends the year at the gates of the political trial ….
This year has been more convulsed than the previous two since Trump took office, because we saw the culmination of the investigation by special prosecutor Robert Mueller. Although the report does not formally accuse it, it does not exonerate it, and there was really a stain in its presidency. The same attitude of the president has been rather weak, on the verge of ethical violation, when the president told his officials that they don't mind breaking the law, and that he was going to forgive them if he needed to.
And regarding the ‘impeachment’, for Trump’s electoral base that blindly follows him, polls show that the political trial process has not changed them, but has even mobilized them to defend their president more. On the side of the Democrats, people who are convinced that the president must be removed are ready for Trump's term to end, either with the "impeachment" or with the vote in the elections.
– Can't you become a boomerang for the Democrats? Because Trump has a majority in the Senate, he won't dismiss him …
I believe that for the Democrats it can serve them because they need to mobilize an entire base that is very disillusioned with the state of democracy, and they are very thirsty to vote against Trump. If Joe Biden becomes the candidate, the whole party is going to join behind him, because he gets it is "anyone but Trump." And it's going to support people who are now with Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, who don't want someone as moderate as Biden.
Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders during the Democratic debate on December 19. (Photo: AFP) – Despite the ‘impeachment’, Trump could get reelected …
Despite the stain he has created in his presidency, the ‘impeachment’ is working very well for Trump to raise money, because his campaign is presenting him as a victim.
– Trump has good economic figures in his favor …
It is true that we are with an unemployment rate of 3.5% nationwide, something historical and that was not seen in 50 years. The Stock Exchange is also at record levels. He managed to renegotiate the free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, and is reaching an agreement on tariffs with China, and they are things he can use in his favor. But Democrats can say that the tax cut they set has benefited the richest and not the working middle class. The issue of social mobility has stagnated, and that is very close to the concept of the American dream. There are fewer and fewer people who have access to that American dream.
Trump's re-election is not certain, nor is it a fact that Democrats are going to raze. There are several Democrats who are hoping to win a majority in the Senate, and that can happen. Today things are not so clear for one side or the other. The ‘impeachment’ has served the Democrats, but in December the polls show that there are fewer voters supporting the political trial, especially on the side of the independents, who are divided on that issue.