General Elections: The First Surveys With Errej贸n | Spain

Every week, Kiko Llaneras writes about politics with data and an analytical look. Sign up to receive the newsletter in your email. Here you have this Wednesday.

馃搳Good morning! I go back to the polls because they are moved. There are two disturbances acting at the same time – the electoral repetition and the Errej贸n effect– and, although the second is more evident, we should not despise the first. Repeating elections can move polls.

1. The latest surveys

Our average says that the PSOE would be around 29% of votes and would be followed by PP (20.3%), UP (13.3%), Cs (12.5%), Vox (8.9%) and More Country (6, 3%).

General Election Surveys

The PP continues to rise. It is three points above its April result and its trend is positive. Especially in the last weeks.

The PSOE has fallen sharply. It reached 31% or 32% before summer, but now it has returned to 29%. The weekend polls – Sondaxe (26%) and Gad3 (27%) – are especially bad for the game.

  • Do the socialists fall for repeating the elections or because of More Country? It's hard to know how much each thing has contributed. I am inclined to give more weight to the repetition, because I believe that the leaks to Errej贸n are too recent. An indication in that sense is that United We have barely gone down (although More Country should also take their votes).

A more aggressive average. In the graph above I have used a cautious average. A more aggressive one, which gives more importance to recent surveys, produces the following result: PSOE 27.9%, PP 21%, UP 12.8%, Cs 12.1%, Vox 8.9% and MP 6.3 %.

  • (Technical detail The averages are a weighted average with decreasing exponential weight and moving window. The original considers all 30-day surveys, with weights such that a survey of 12 days ago has half the value. The aggressive considers 12-day surveys and uses weights with a half-life of six days.)

2. The two unknowns around More Country

latest polls
Inigo Errejon, candidate for Mas Pa铆s THE COUNTRY

1. Where do More Country voters come from? According to the latest Sondaxe poll, 21% of Podemos voters and 10% of the PSOE would vote for More Country. They are figures similar to those of Sociometrics, which spoke of 23% and 10%, respectively, a few days ago.

  • Errej贸n would have as many PSOE voters as we can, if that data were confirmed. That coincides with a recent study by Llorente & Cuenca (in Madrid and with little sample), but clashes with the result of the regional elections. Then 22% of the votes of M谩s Madrid – Errej贸n – came from the PSOE and 51% from United Podemos.

2. In which provinces will they appear? This week it has been confirmed that M谩s Pa铆s will concur in coalition with Equo, la Chunta and Comprom铆s. That means that it will be presented in the three Valencian provinces and in Zaragoza, but it does not clarify much more.

  • The agreement with Equo is for 12 provinces (Madrid, Bizkaia, Sevilla, M谩laga, Granada, C谩diz, A Coru帽a, Pontevedra, Murcia, Asturias, Las Palmas and Santa Cruz de Tenerife), but it is a 鈥渕aximum鈥 agreement: they could not Present lists in all those places. Nor do we know if More Country will attend alone in other provinces such as Barcelona.
  • The final answer will be on Monday, when the deadline for the parties to present their lists expires.

3. Elections in Portugal 馃嚨馃嚬

On Sunday there are elections in Portugal, where the socialist Ant贸nio Costa (of the PS) seeks a majority to govern alone. Since 2015 he has done so in coalition with the Bloque de Esquerda (BE) and the Communists (CDU).

What the polls say The Socialists are around 38.5% of votes, the Bloco 10% and the Communists 7%. The second force is the PSD (25%). The conservatives of the CDS-PP (5%) and the environmentalists of the PAN (4%) would also obtain representation.

10n surveys
  • In seats. With these results, the PS would be around 111 seats, followed by PSD (68), BE (21), CDU (14), CDS-PP (10) and PAN (6). The data is a projection of the vote in each constituency using this tool.

Will the socialists have a majority? It is not clear. They are close to the 116 seats that are necessary, but below. Yes it seems likely that the Socialists join the Bloco. As a reference, in 2011 and 2015 the most voted party was around 39% of votes and that was not worth it to reach a majority (it remained around 47% in seats).

Surveys in Portugal have been good in the past. Since 1991, polling averages for legislative votes in the country have made an average absolute error per match (MAE) of 1.3 points. That is less than in Spain (where the MAE is around 1.9 points) and in the United States (2 points). I have made the calculation with data from Jennings and Wlezien (Nature).

4. Order of magnitude: future of work (II)

+ Since 1995, the most qualified jobs have grown. Last week I showed with OECD data that intermediate qualification employment had been reduced, but I forgot to point out another thing in the graph: those jobs have been displaced by high-skilled jobs.

+ Not only that: the highest paid, most satisfactory and most prestigious positions also grew. It is one of the conclusions of Daniel Oesch's research, which has analyzed the occupational change in Germany, the United Kingdom, Sweden and Spain between 1992 and 2015.

  • The work grew more in "quality" occupations, measured with four metrics: income, education, prestige and satisfaction.
  • The jobs that were reduced are not surprising: they were mostly office positions and industrial workers. The ones that grew the most? Professionals and managers with medium-high income.

+ 2030 jobs? The consultant McKinsey expects that between 2017 and 2030 jobs in health, care, STEM / STIM and entertainment will grow. | McKinsey

5. An 鈥榬andom鈥 unidentified data 馃懢

In 1989 until the news told that a UFO had landed in Voronezh (Russia). With some caution, but totally serious. I remembered this Sunday with 脥帽igo Dom铆nguez in the supplement Ideas.

electoral polls
  • The speech gave amazing details: 鈥淢any people saw the luminous disk perching on the city park. One, two or three humanoids left the UFO … They all looked the same, except for a robot that accompanied them. 鈥
  • Plus. The article has links to the videos.

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