The news of the last days has emphasized the death in Baghdad, with an American drone, of Iranian General Soleimani, a legendary Iranian revolution military and commander of the special forces of the Revolutionary Guard who operate especially abroad and who led the defeat of ISI (Islamic State) in Syria and Iraq. I would like to place this fact of war, worrisome doubt, within a broader context, that of the reconfiguration of the global geopolitical order that it has for now, as an epicenter, the Middle East and Central Asia.
After the long period of stability of the cold war, called by some as 'balance of terror', in which there were two major superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union, a short period of American hegemony was entered – some naively spoke of the beginning of the American century-, which slowly began to change, on the one hand, with the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in Washington and New York by the terrorist network Al Qaeda and the beginning by USA of the two Asian wars, that of Afghanistan against the Taliban and Iraq against Saddam Hussein, both with negative results for Washington; on the other, the slow but sustained military recovery of Russia, under the leadership of Putin and the return to the classical Russian expansionist policy – now he has just incorporated into his Armed Forces the last generation hypersonic missile Avangard-, as well as the slow economic growth of the historic Asian power, China, after the death of Mao Zedong and the pragmatic political orientation promoted by Den Xiaoping, which has been positioned as the first global economic power – progressively also strengthens its military capacity – as well as the rise of powers such as India in Asia, Turkey – is considered the heiress of the Ottoman Empire – the Sunni dynasty of Saudi Arabia, and Shiite Iran, which although it is not Arab, it is Muslim, among others – which must include Israel, Pakistan, South Africa and eventually Brazil if it manages to get out of the current bad run.
At the time, the old powers of the 19th century and the first half of the 20th century are in decline, Berlin, Rome, London, Paris, now under the mantle of the European Union – integration with many current difficulties – and less and less considered by USA as their peers and it is clear that they are now positioned as second-line players.RELATED
The confrontation has had the last times as theater the Middle East and Central Asia, for the presence there of reserves of oil and gas, the two conflicts in which some of these global actors have played, Syria and now Libya – where great protagonists and winners they seem to be the Russians and the Turks – and Iran's tensions with Israel that are at the base of the current confrontation between the USA and Iran – the Trump government's lack of knowledge of the agreement reached with the great powers, including the USA, for Iranian denuclearization – and that it may have risks of violent events of concern to global peace.
But there are equally encouraging signs on the picture; there is a principle of agreement to end the economic war between the USA and China and this month the first Treaty will be signed and a second one will continue to be discussed; there are signs of interest in re-discussing the nuclear weapons regulation treaty between the USA and Russia and even President Putin raised the possibility of including his new hypersonic weapon there.
There is no doubt that we are in the slow process of reconfiguration of a new global, multipolar geopolitical order, with the risks and advantages that entails.