The beginning of the political trial against Donald Trump can help approve the USMCA in the United States Congress. Sounds weird, but yes. Democrats are obliged to demonstrate that impeachment does not mean the paralysis of political life in the United States and they have few issues as conducive to doing that demonstration as the T-MEC.
Let's face it: there are many reasons to be nervous about the future of the trade agreement, in a context of political war between the Democrats and Donald Trump. It is logical that the peso has lost 11 cents against the dollar in the hours after the decision of the Capitol. It is very likely that you will lose more in the coming days.
Let's be realistic, but also incorporate an element of political calculation. To discredit the political trial, Trump has built a line of argument in which he intends to show Democrats as irresponsible and unproductive. Call nothing to the leader of the Lower House, Nancy Pelosi, and aims to convince the American people that the impeachment will be a huge waste of time. In his effort to distract from the substantive aspects of the accusations against him, he presents a cartoon of the Democrats as obsessed with one thing, their demolition, and unable to help resolve the issues that urge the United States, including the USMCA.RELATED
Democrats have an easy way to discredit these criticisms of the president: approve the trade agreement. It is true that that would mean a political triumph for Trump, because he would grant him a trophy in the commercial field, where he has left a trail of lawsuits with everyone, including China, but also his allies. With the approval of the T-MEC in Congress, Democrats can build a narrative in which they save the United States from commercial isolationism and, thus, credit victory on a relevant issue. After all, the demands of the Democrats were the main factor that made Mexico more deeply committed to labor reform, especially in aspects that concern unions in the United States.
So far optimism. It is necessary not to close your eyes to how complicated the scenario is for the approval of the T-MEC in 2019. The first problem is on the calendar: the legislative year ends with Thanksgiving, the third Thursday of November. Knowing that, the group of legislators who are negotiating the adjustments to the USMCA will take a week off and return to work on Tuesday, November 12.
Another factor to consider is that the work team headed by Robert Lighthizer has not submitted the Implementation Bill, a key document that reflects the legislative changes that derive from the trade agreement. Without that text, which consists of hundreds of pages, the legislative discussion cannot begin formally.
Less than two business weeks remain and the US Congress is engaged in a battle that offers little incentive to collaborate. Will there be T-MEC in 2019? Things are uphill and the land is full of mines. In favor, there is the fact that American society has learned to value commercial society with Mexico. He knows that 14 million jobs and 75,000 companies depend on him. They also know that Mexico and Canada together buy more from the United States than Japan, China and Europe together. On which side will the coin fall?
Editorial General Director of El Economista
Degree in Economics from the University of Guadalajara. He studied the Master of Journalism in El País, at the Autonomous University of Madrid in 1994, and a specialization in economic journalism at Columbia University in New York. He has been a reporter, business editor and editorial director of the Guadalajara PUBLIC newspaper, and has worked in the Siglo 21 and Milenio newspapers.
He has specialized in economic journalism and investigative journalism, and has made professional stays at Cinco Días in Madrid and San Antonio Express News, in San Antonio, Texas.