The recall requires three ingredients: evidence of treason, corruption or other crimes and serious offenses; the votes of Congress – half plus one – and the Senate – 67 -, which make up the qualified majority of two thirds; and the most decisive, the favorable attitude of public opinion. Without evidence, public opinion will not be decided, and without it, there will not be enough votes in both houses of Congress. The congressmen depend on their voters, so it becomes difficult to vote for the impeachment if they also vote on the next electoral defeat in the congressional constituency.
Until September there was no majority favorable to the impeachment in the surveys, which currently point to 49% in favor and 45% against. The president of the Congress, Nancy Pelosi, waited to have public opinion in favor to start the procedure. Presidential impeachment is not popular, as evidenced by its restricted history (three antecedents, none culminated). After all, it means the parliamentary rectification of a democratic vote cast by citizens.RELATED
Without sufficient public support, the tests are not useful and do not reach the votes. Richard Nixon resigned before being dismissed because he knew he had irrefutable evidence, enough votes, including Republicans, and a hostile opinion. With Bill Clinton there were not enough votes, opinion was divided and even the procedure has been the subject of discussion among jurists.
Now it is about convincing opinion, especially a Republican who is not very motivated by the removal of a president who satisfies the low instincts regarding immigration, taxes or trade protectionism. While 83% of Democrats support the impeachment, only 12% of Republicans have the same attitude, to whom they do not dent the evidence of abuse of power already available.
The stage opened yesterday, that of televised audiences, has diplomats as protagonists. Trump is destroying the State Department, and with him mistreating diplomacy. In relations with Ukraine, he has reached the extreme of organizing a parallel diplomacy, under the command of his lawyer Rudy Giuliani.
The abuse of power that is judged goes beyond, therefore, the infamous treatment that Donald Trump intended to obtain with his threats to freeze military aid to Ukraine and his refusal to receive the Ukrainian president if the latter did not agree to lend a hand in presidential campaign. In reality, the use of foreign policy for the personal benefit of the president is judged. He wanted a new foreign interference for his next election campaign, this time proven induced, and not merely consented, as he was credited in Robert Mueller's investigation into Russia's role in the presidential elections. Trump rose on television, and it is also television that can knock him down, especially if public hearings manage to double the resistance of a Republican opinion still delivered.
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