"Impeachment" To Trump: Why It Is So Unlikely That The President Will Be Removed From Office After The Political Trial

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                    Trump became the third president of the United States to face an impeachment process, but the president is expected to be acquitted by the Senate.

US President Donald Trump became Wednesday the third president in the history of the United States to face a political trial.

The legislators of the House of Representatives of the Congress of that country accuse him of exerting pressure on Ukraine to obtain personal political benefits and of trying to obstruct the investigations that the organ carried out.


Almost all members of Congress voted in accordance with the guidelines of their parties. The exception was two Democrats who voted against the first accusation and three who opposed the second.

Green light to "impeachment": Trump becomes the third president in the history of the United States to face a political trial

No member of the Trump Republican Party voted to proceed with the impeachment.

The president will now be subjected to a trial in the Senate and could be removed only a few months after the presidential elections that will be held next November.

But because Republicans are a majority in the Upper House, the chances of that happening are slim.

Why is his dismissal unlikely?
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                    Following the vote in favor of impeachment in the lower house of the United States Congress, President Trump will face a trial in the Senate next year.

Two thirds of the votes in the US Senate are required to separate the president from office.

The Republican Party controls 53 of the 100 seats and, to win, the Democrats would need at least 67 senators to vote for the president's dismissal.

This means that, in addition to the 45 votes of its own party and the support of two independents, the Democratic Party needs 20 Republicans to change sides.

And achieving this seems unlikely at this time, as Carl Tobias of the Richmond School of Law in Virginia, USA explains to the BBC.

Although the senators should behave impartially during the trial, the leader of the Republican majority in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, has already dismissed the impeachment as partisan and has warned that he will not be neutral in hearing the arguments against the US president .

"I am not an impartial jury. This is a political process. There is nothing judicial about it," McConnell said.

"The Chamber made the partisan political decision to carry out the impeachment process. I could anticipate that we will have a broadly partisan result in the Senate."

Trump's political trial: what is an "impeachment" and what other presidents of the United States have been subjected to one

Tobias, on the other hand, describes the partisan polarization of the matter as "worrying."

"Some of the Republicans in the Senate have already said how they are going to vote and have not heard any testimony or evidence, they have not had any discussion," he says.

"It is worrying that, being members of the jury, they have already decided how the verdict should be."

A risky move
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                    Trump has maintained a challenging stance and has said the accusation is an "open war against American democracy."

Only two US presidents have been subjected to political trials: Andrew Johnson in 1868 and Bill Clinton in 1998, and both were acquitted by the Senate.

For Democrats, trying to dismiss Trump in an election year is a politically risky move.

Although the political trial may affect the president's campaign, it could also make it difficult for Democratic candidates to be re-elected in areas where Trump has strong support.

So why do your opponents continue with such a risky strategy?

Defending the Constitution
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                    The president of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi is often the focus of Trump's anger.

"We have to defend the Constitution and the balance of powers. It is clear that there are actionable offenses and, if we did not put them on trial, that would set a terrible precedent for the future," Julia Bryan, international president of Democrats told the BBC. abroad.

"It is our constitutional responsibility, it is our moral responsibility. Congress cannot ignore evidence that is so clear and has been presented to us by people in a neutral position," said Bryan, who is also a member of the National Democratic Committee.

Trump has firmly rejected accusations of abuse of power for allegedly conditioning military aid to Ukraine in exchange for its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, investigating Joe Biden, one of the main political rivals of the US president.

In a letter sent to the president of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi, Trump accused her of launching an "open war against American democracy."

"Impeachment" to Trump: the processes to dismiss presidents that have taken place in Latin America in the last 30 years

Professor Tobias believes that some Democrats believe they have "solemn duty" to move forward with the impeachment process.

"They feel compelled by their oaths to continue it, because they feel there is no guarantee that (Trump) will not continue to violate his oath," he says.

"I think the concern of the Democrats is that he can try to manipulate the elections that will be held in less than a year: this is what everyone thinks here."

"Electoral connection"
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                    Trump has flatly denied having pressured the Ukrainian president to investigate his political rival.

But Professor Todd Belt, director of the Political Management program at George Washington University, says there is another "electoral connection."

"The Democrats think about what their electorate thinks about the impeachment. If they did not comply with this, then it would be difficult for them to be re-elected," says Belt.

"Similarly, Republicans believe that if they do not support the president, it will also be difficult for them to be re-elected."

According to the BBC's North American correspondent, Anthony Zurcher, "the Democratic base has been howling for a political trial for months."

"If the Democratic officials had not taken action, they would have risked the wrath of their most loyal supporters, and would have faced primary challenges or lost the general elections because their side would not feel motivated enough to go to the polls," he writes.

Keeping Trump on the defensive
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                    Experts say the Democrats will try to keep the president under pressure beyond the political trial.

Democrats have also indicated that political judgment is a way of keeping Trump on the defensive.

The investigation has put Trump's companies and associates under scrutiny, especially his personal lawyer and former mayor of New York, Rudy Giuliani.

The lawyer became a key piece in the removal of the former US ambassador. in Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch, for considering that this was not fair to the president.

"I strongly anticipate that we will have several court cases about the president, about his actions and also about those of Rudy Giuliani and his partners in Ukraine," says Belt.

"Impeachment" to Trump: 6 key questions to understand the historic political trial against the US president

"There may also be more court cases related to President Trump's business."

"There is a set of other forms, in addition to impeachment, that (the Democrats) will use to keep the focus on the president's actions that go beyond the limits for them."

Any additional evidence that arises in future cases could, of course, be detrimental to Trump.

Will this process have an influence on the vote?
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                    Surveys suggest that Americans are divided equally over whether the president should be dismissed.

Democrats suggest that the next stage of the impeachment process could attract even more public attention.

The polls suggest that the opinion of the American people is divided evenly over whether Trump should be separated from his post.

In the last one, published on Tuesday by the American newspaper The Washington Post and the ABC channel, 49% of the respondents were in favor of the dismissal and 46% opposed.

The negative public opinion that Richard Nixon had in 1974 paved the way for his resignation, given the possible dismissal he faced and that became increasingly safe.

But, according to Belt, the solid Republican majority of the Senate and its strategy to disqualify the investigation as a partisan make this a distant possibility in Trump's case.

"With Nixon, the Democrats moved slowly and it was a trickle after trickle of the information that kept coming (which led him to resign)."

"A longer process for Democrats could bring to light more crimes and more substantive evidence, but they are trying to conclude it quickly so they can focus on other things that will help them be re-elected."

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