Many things have happened in the political dynamic between the last Democratic debate in Texas and this Tuesday in Ohio: since the beginning of the political trial against President Donald Trump and even the loss of advantage that former Vice President Joe Biden has begun to feel for the rise of Senator Elizabeth Warrren.
The fourth Democratic presidential debate in Ohio on Tuesday may be more decisive than the previous ones in the race for the nomination. Warren has surpassed the Biden leader so far in some polls and everyone's performance on stage may be crucial to give or take away the necessary thrust in their campaigns.
For the first time last week Warren beat Biden in the polls, with a difference of 0.2%. This week the former vice president took the lead again, but by a minimum margin of 1.8% (27.8% for Biden and 26% for Warren) according to the Real Clear Politics index, an average of the main public opinion polls.RELATED
Both will be accompanied by 10 other candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination
Bernie Sanders, senator from Vermont.
Cory Booker, senator from New Jersey.
Kamala Harris, senator for California.
Amy Klobuchar, senator for Minnesota.
Tulsi Gabbard, representative for Hawaii.
Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana.
Julián Castro, former Secretary of Housing.
Beto O'Rourke, former representative of Texas.
Andrew Yang, entrepreneur
Tom Steyer, entrepreneur.
Ohio congressman Tim Ryan failed to qualify for the debate in his own state, but took advantage of the attention to organize several field interviews.
In Ohio, Quinnipiac's latest poll shows Biden with 31%, Sanders with 14% and Warren with 13%. But in a survey conducted by Emerson the vice president has a 2-point advantage over Sanders with 29%, while the Massachusetts senator records 21%.
According to Johns Hopkins University government scholar Robert Guttman, it is most likely that "Warren is more criticized in the debate" than in previous opportunities, based on the results of the polls.
Debate on ‘impeachment’
This is the first debate after the political trial against Donald Trump began, which triggered the president's request to his Ukrainian colleague, Volodymyr Zelensky, to investigate accusations about the work of Hunter Biden, the son of the former vice president, with a company Energy in that country.
Although in general the Democrats question Trump's use of his position to boost an investigation. Senators like Harris and Booker have criticized Biden for allowing his son to be part of the council in a foreign company, but it is still unclear whether such direct attacks on the scenario are well received by the base of the match.
This will also be the first meeting since the attack on the heart of Sanders, which has kept the senator out of his usual campaign pace. It is not expected that competitors will use it against him, in fact, all expressed their wishes for his speedy recovery, but surely his performance will be followed closely by the audience.
“In addition to Sanders' heart attack she is gaining more support, but Biden can still win the nomination. He can defeat Donald Trump, I'm not sure Warren can do it, ”he told Univision News.
The debate will take place in Westerville, a suburb of the city of Columbus, with more than 40,000 residents and the election is part of a strategic democratic conception.
The Democratic Party said the city was chosen because it illustrates a trend they want to highlight in 2020, an increase in voters with more education in the suburbs, which are leaving the Republican Party of Donald Trump.
"The Democratic Party has an opportunity here, as they saw gains in the 2018 elections. They are more prepared voters, with college education especially in the area surrounding Columbus," Christopher Devin, professor of political science at the University, told Univision News. Dayton University, Ohio.
The academic explained that the primary issues for voters in Westerville and Ohio are similar to those in the rest of the country: health, immigration and economics. Although at this last point there is much concern about the continued loss of manufacturing jobs.
Last March General Motors announced the closure of its plant in Lordstown Ohio, which affected about 1,700 jobs. The company announced in November 2018 a massive restructuring that includes the closure of several plants in the United States and Canada.
“In addition to manufacturing work, the issue of tariffs has also affected many in the agricultural industry, especially soy farmers. Because of concerns about the economy particular to Ohio, Biden is better positioned in the state as someone who has made an effort to identify with the working class, ”said Devin.
Ohio will be one of the most interesting states in the 2020 election, due to its status as purple territory.
It is a pé pendulum state ’in which in 2016 Trump took 9 points ahead of Hillary Clinton, reversing the favorable outcome for the Democrats that President Barack Obama achieved in his two elections
And although since the time of Obama the population decline has caused him to lose two electoral votes, the Democratic and Republican campaigns will focus an important part of his resources to take them in November 2020.
In photos: These Democrats are confident they can get Trump out of the White House in 2020
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