Investors Begin The Week Cautiously As They Analyze The Call Of Donald Trump To Alberto Fernández

Of course, indices appeared that may surprise, but do not mean a change in trend. Actually, they mean nothing. You have to wait for investors to process all internal data that has huge contradictions and changes daily.

In other circumstances, that the reserves have increased USD 34 million to 43,289 million, it would have amazed. But the rise was due to the stocks that prevent the normal development of the dollar, the rise in gold and the fall of the dollar against the six major currencies of the world, including the euro. All these assets make up the reserves of the Central Bank.

On the other hand, the country risk had an irrelevant fall of 14 points due more to the sharp fall in US Treasury bonds than to local bond prices. The North American bonds, happened to render 2,19% a level that they did not know since last August 5 and this can work as a vacuum cleaner for the world dollars.


Local bonds that can influence the composition of country risk, which ended at 2,275 basis points, had slight increases. The problem is that the sale of long bonds with New York legislation does not exist because there are no sellers. They keep them because they hope they will not enter the reperfilation, much less after Trump's phone call announcing that he will accompany Argentina in the negotiation with the IMF. "In Trump's language," accompanying is not synonymous with helping.

Private creditors, who expect removals of up to 20% and longer terms, are as or more important than the IMF. The next 2020 maturities have to find the renegotiated debt so that they do not fall into default.

Debt negotiation will be the first big step and contradicts everything that is being talked about the next management plan. There is no economic plan, without prior negotiation with creditors, including the IMF, who want to know how Argentina will pay them a change in debt conditions. Where it says "how," you should read what economic policy will follow. And there can not be ignored a cut in public spending.

Creditors will require a tax surplus to collect. If that happens, Argentina can get dollars abroad to meet the maturities, in addition to ensuring the disbursement of around USD 11.5 billion in three tranches until the end of 2020 that is pending from the IMF. Reality contradicts campaign speeches.

Meanwhile, deposits follow a path that is not positive. On October 29, dollar placements dropped USD 247 million and fixed-term deposits lost against the September average of $ 63 billion. The only ones that increased were the placements indexed by the CER that rose $ 880 million (+ 6%) to $ 14,878 million. The reason for this movement must be sought in that inflation is expected to be high for a long time.

The stock market, of course, is a hotbed of opportunities. With less business than usual, although still high, the S&P Merval rose 2.14% and there is good humor in investors. For example, Aluar, which paid dividends, increased by more than 10% to be added to the almost 40% that grew in October.

A fact that did not go unnoticed was the fall of $ 1.50 to $ 67.50 of the "free dollar." Being so low the monthly quota of USD 200 dollars, some take the opportunity to resell it in the marginal square and earn almost $ 4 per dollar. Others directly keep them in their accounts as marginal savings.

This week will be guided by signals that not everyone interprets in the same way. What is clear is that there is still no economic plan and yes, rumors.

The market is driven by pure perception. They know that much of what is said until December 11, has no certainty.



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