A SURVEY IS NOT NEEDED TO KNOW THAT THE IMMEDIATE MAJORITY OF MEXICANS WANTS OR UNTIL HAS DONALD TRUMP LEAVES the presidency of the United States, regardless of whether it is through the process of revocation of mandate or impeachment, or because it loses the elections within one year.
But, contrary to what one might think, his departure would not clear the way to a better relationship between Mexico and the United States.
"A relief in the presidency by a Democratic candidate does not imply a simpler scenario," says Iliana Santibáñez, professor at Tec de Monterrey and a member of the National System of Researchers. “The Democrats have always had a kind speech about Mexico, but they have not promoted policies that, in fact, represent benefits. Republicans have had more openness to negotiate. ”RELATED
Indeed, during the administration of Democrat Barack Obama, the deportations were historic, with a maximum of 409,000 people in 2012, says Santibáñez. And, although NAFTA was approved in 1994 by the administration of Democrat Bill Clinton, the negotiation was mostly done with the government of Republican George Bush Sr..
Today, the T-MEC, which is of great interest to Mexico, is in limbo because it has not been ratified by the US Congress, a Democratic majority, and the indefinition could last until after the elections of November 2020. “For Mexico , the trade issue will always be very difficult because it has access to one of the most important markets in the world, ”says Mark Aspinwall, senior research professor at the International Studies Division of CIDE.
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Regarding migration, the perspective is similar. While Mexico had to give in to Trump's commercial threats and increase border surveillance, strengthening security in the south of the country is seen as a long-term challenge, says Aspinwall.
“With or without Trump, Mexico must protect the southern border more. No country can maintain an unlimited open door policy, let alone if it is a transit nation. ”
It is true that Donald Trump has developed a dangerous ability to make the markets nervous with a tweet, but his exaggerations have made investors and analysts learn not to take everything so seriously.
Trump has generated “atypical” uncertainty regarding the volatility of the exchange rate and the actions of companies in Mexico that are most exposed to trade with the United States; However, over time, markets have also assimilated the scope of their speech, says Gilberto Romero, director of Markets at VePorMás.
“Today, a tweet from the president does not have the same influence. We believe that the aggressiveness of the president will continue to generate reactions in the market, but not at the same intensity, ”he says.
But, what could most disappoint those who wait for the end of the Trump era, is to be replaced by someone very similar to him, a possibility that should not be ruled out.
“Nationalist discourse is occupying positions throughout the world; it is enough to see Brazil, Italy, Russia or France: although they are not politicians who coincide, they are nationalist presidents with speeches that divide society, our own president [Andrés Manuel López Obrador] also has an evangelistic vision on national sovereignty. It would not be strange if the next president [of the United States] was also a controversial figure, ”says Santibáñez.