Model used by the White House re-projects more than 100,000 deaths from coronavirus in the United States

Model Used By The White House Re-projects More Than 100,000 Deaths From Coronavirus In The United States

Washington .- As dozens of states gradually reopen their economies, the model that the White House usually uses to project the potential for deaths in the United States from the coronavirus almost doubled its estimate today.

Of the nearly 72,400 deaths it estimated would occur by August 4, the University of Washington Institute for Health Measurement and Assessment raised its projection to 134,475, among other things because of initiatives to ease social restrictions.

“More localities are softening social distancing policies and human mobility patterns are going upwards,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute.


Murray said they have also taken into account the fact that states add to the total of deaths cases in which the person is presumed to have died from the coronavirus and an increase in fatalities in the midwestern United States.

According to data from Johns Hopkins University, the corroborated cases of coronavirus in the United States today were 1.17 million. Deaths exceeded 68,300.

The University of Washington model has gone back and forth, but amid orders for people to stay home, it reduced deaths to about 60,000, which it originally predicted could reach 100,000 to 240,000.

President Donald Trump himself, skeptical of giving negative news about the spread of the virus, said Sunday night that deaths may approach 100,000.

A report that circulates through offices of the Trump government – with the logo of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) -, calculated that by the end of the month there may be 200,000 new daily cases of coronavirus and up to 3,000 deaths.

Both the White House and CDC distanced themselves from that analysis, released by The New York Times, and which turned out to be an incomplete projection by epidemiologist Justin Lessler of the Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health.

As part of the process toward a gradual reopening of business, measures that soften orders for citizens to stay home came into effect in nine states yesterday.

In Florida, for example, restaurants and retail businesses reopened, but they can only operate at 25% of their capacity to receive customers.

Three counties with a high concentration of corroborated coronavirus cases – Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach – remain under orders that only allow them to leave home to offer or purchase essential services.

States like Nebraska, Kansas, and Mississippi also began allowing limited operation of their businesses. “Our hospital system is not overwhelmed, we have fewer than 100 people on automatic ventilators,” Mississippi Governor Republican Tate Reeves told Fox.

Manufacturing and construction companies reopened in Ohio.

In South Dakota, a pork meat processing plant took the first steps to reopen after it closed when more than 800 employees became infected with coronavirus, the Associated Press said.

In California, Governor Gavin Newson said that as early as next weekend he can allow a partial opening of retail businesses, such as clothing, music, toy and sporting goods stores, as well as bookstores and flower shops.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, for his part, expanded the list of requirements for a region to reopen functions starting May 15, when the current executive order that orders almost everyone to stay home expires.

The CDC has recommended that before reopening the economy there be a 14-day consecutive drop in the number of corroborated coronavirus cases or hospitalizations.

They also propose to ensure, before any reopening, that the hospital system has the capacity to handle a new COVID-19 outbreak, and that there are sufficient screening tests for workers who are vulnerable to infection, such as employees in the hospital area. Health.

Cuomo said regions in his state must ensure they have 30% of the capacity of hospitals available, including intensive care units.

In addition, hospitalizations must be below two per 100,000 residents, there must be the ability to screen the novel virus for 3% of the population, and 30 people per 100,000 residents must be available for contact screening.

The Senate returns to session

In the American capital, where coronavirus cases are still on the rise, Senate Republican Majority Leader Mitch McConnell reopened the upper house sessions.

However, the Democratic leadership of the lower house has followed the recommendations of the official congressional doctor and decided to keep his sessions suspended, pending an agreement for an upcoming federal economic stimulus bill.

McConnell maintained that “it was time” to return to fulfill legislative functions from the Senate.

Meanwhile, Democratic minority leader Charles Schumer said McConnell has decided to convene the Senate “despite the risks” it represents for Capitol Hill workers and lawmakers.

But, he argued that if it has returned to session, the logical thing should be to focus the work on the response to the emergency, as a new federal economic stimulus project, and not on appointments, as McConnell has announced.



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