Colorado State University (CSU) released its forecast for the next Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1, Thursday, suggesting the formation of at least 16 tropical storms and eight hurricanes. .
The CSU Department of Atmospheric Sciences indicated that it considered the absence of the El Niño phenomenon as one of the factors in carrying out its report, which is based on data accumulated over four decades.
According to Philip J. Klotzbach, researcher at the CSU Department of Atmospheric Sciences, the temperature of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is “currently warmer than the long-term average temperature”, and this is “a favorable factor for an active season hurricane. “
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At the same time, the temperature of the tropical Pacific is expected to decrease in the coming months, so El Niño will not coincide with the hurricane season in the Caribbean and the eastern United States.
In the report released today, the center predicts 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and four of them major category with sustained winds above about 110 miles per hour, that is, category 3 on the Saffir / Simpson scale, one maximum of 5.
According to Klotzbach, the next hurricane season, which will end on November 30, “exhibits characteristics similar” to those of 1960, 1966, 1980 and 1996, with 2008 being the most recent year with a similar forecast.
According to the report, there is a 69% chance that any of the hurricanes will affect any point on the east coast of the United States (the average of the last century was 52%).
The forecast includes 80 days of storms and 35 days of hurricanes, above the historical average of 59 and 24, respectively.
In addition, a 44% probability of a hurricane reaching the Gulf of Mexico and a 58% probability of a hurricane in the Caribbean have been estimated, both numbers significantly above historical averages.
If the forecast is fulfilled, the 2020 season will be 140% above the average season, while 2019 was 75% and 2018 120% of that average.
“This report is our best estimate of the potential hurricane activity with the atmospheric and ocean conditions observed last season,” Klotzbach told Efe, who insisted that the forecast is “only our best anticipation” of what could happen. with hurricanes.
“It is impossible to predict a full hurricane season as early as April,” he added, and therefore updated forecasts will be released on June 4, July 7 and August 6.
To develop these forecasts, the CSU Meteorology Department works together with 24 other universities and national to international institutions dedicated to climate measurement, including, among others, the Barcelona Center for Supercomputers.
Since 2018, cyclone data has also been used in the Indian and Pacific oceans, and in the northern and southern hemispheres.
