Qasem Soleimani: Does Donald Trump Have a Real Strategy To Face The Crisis With Iran After The Death Of That Country's Top General?

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                    Donald Trump says he takes steps to stop, not start, a war.

The decision of the president of the United States, Donald Trump, to authorize an attack with drones that ended the life of Qasem Soleimani, the most powerful military commander in Iran, has increased tension between these nations. What strategy is this and what can happen next?

Trump has always promised to take American troops out of the Middle East.

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But under his presidency, relations between his country and Iran have become more tense as the US He imposed more sanctions on Baghdad and withdrew from a nuclear agreement that he considered to have failures.

This is what US foreign policy experts. They told the BBC about what may be behind the decision to kill Soleimani and what this means for relations between the two countries.

"Trump is not a great strategist"

P.J. Crowley was US Deputy Secretary of State. and author of 'Red Line: American Foreign Policy in a Time of Fractured Politics and Failing States' (Red Line: US foreign policy at a time of broken policies and failed states).

Because right now?

We had the attack of the militia backed by Iran and the response against its facilities in Iraq and Syria.

The Trump administration was surprised by the magnitude of the attack on the embassy in Baghdad, saw it as an escalation of tensions and believed that Soleimani was behind it. When presented with a target of opportunity (when a possible target appears unexpectedly in the sights), the president authorized the attack.

What originated the rivalry facing Iran and the US for decades

What is Trump's strategy?

Donald Trump is not a great strategist. Live in the now and act by instinct. I would be surprised if I had thought about the consequences.

He was presented with the opportunity that Obama did not have to eliminate a "bad man." That was probably all he needed to hear.

Whats Next?

Iran promised to react and has many representatives who will seek targets of opportunity throughout the region. They understand enough of American politics to know that the key to Trump's re-election campaign is the economy. If they can disturb it, they will.

In theory, the end of the game that Trump is running is forcing Iran to return to the negotiating table for a "better deal" that takes into account not only Iran's nuclear ambitions, but also its missile program and its behavior in the region.

3 international consequences of the death of the powerful Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in the US attack
                
                
                
                
                
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                    Thousands of Iranians took to the streets to fire Qasem Soleimani.

It is unlikely to see how this can bring us closer to a negotiation. The US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, dreams when he says that we will be widely applauded throughout the region.

In Jerusalem (Israel) and Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) yes, but the rest of the region is holding its breath.

What about your promise to leave the Middle East?

Trump has never resolved the inherent contradiction of his policy regarding Iran. He wants to exert maximum pressure there and at the same time tries to get the United States out of the region.

Although he has constantly criticized the wars in the Middle East, his action, at least in the short term, increases the risk that the political and economic conflict between Iran and the United States will grow until it reaches arms.

"The stick and the carrot"

William Tobey is a researcher at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School and was a deputy administrator for the defense of nuclear non-proliferation in the United States National Nuclear Safety Administration.

Because right now?

The moment probably reflects the fact that the maximum pressure campaign has been surprisingly effective.

Tehran has chosen to move from the economic to the military dimension, first with attacks against ships and oil facilities and then against contractors.

One could see what is happening now as an attempt to close that channel through which the situation can escalate, to tell Tehran: "Look, that is not going to work for you."

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                    Protests were held on Saturday in some US cities. to ask the government not to start a war.

What is Trump's strategy?

He is following a complicated policy: pressuring Iran to feel that it literally has no choice but to return to the negotiating table, and thus obtain a better agreement; but not to push hard enough for Iran to think that there is no possibility of the United States adhering to a treaty or even signing a pact that would be tolerable for Iranians.

On the one hand, you can see the stick in the attack on the Soleimani convoy, but also the carrot when Trump says: "Look, I don't want a war with Iran."

Try to keep open the possibility that you don't see unlimited conflict as a constructive path.

And now that?

Iran has recorded overwhelming figures on the rate of inflation and devaluation of its currency. After fighting a losing battle in the face of economic sanctions, he decided to open a new one: that of military attacks.

I have the belief that nation-states that feel offended or attacked become more risk tolerant.

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                    Outside of Iran there have also been protests over the attack on Soleimani, as it is in Pakistan.

We certainly see a high risk tolerance by the government in Tehran … I suspect that your willingness to take on more risks will increase.

So the question is, which one will end first: the campaign of maximum pressure or Tehran's ability to resist it?

"Trump was cornered"

Luke Coffey is the Director of the Allison Center for Foreign Policy at the Heritage Foundation, a group of conservative experts based in Washington D.C. He is also a veteran of the US Army. and former special advisor to the United Kingdom Ministry of Defense.

Because right now?

I think every person has a limit.

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                    Some protesters in Iran burned the flags of Israel and the US

When you look at everything that Iran did last year … I think it is clear that Iran was trying to provoke some kind of response from the United States.

Trump, who is not very interventionist in the military, was trying to avoid this situation. I suspect that this option was presented to him in the past and he rejected it, and this week he decided that he was well.

He has continued saying that he wants a negotiated agreement with Iran without conditions for the talks.

Trump reached a point where he had to step back.

What is Trump's strategy?

The maximum pressure campaign is the strategy: the government has been very consistent in this.

Trump has shown that he is trying to bring the Iranians to the negotiating table and I think he is trying to do so with the least amount of military kinetic action.

I think Trump sees himself as a great negotiator and that he wanted to be the one to close the deal, but he was cornered because Iran kept adjusting the pressure.

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                    Soleimani was the top military leader in Iran.

You just don't get up one morning and decide to kill Qasem Soleimani. There had to be inter-institutional planning in terms of tracking his whereabouts, finding windows of opportunity (right time).

We must not forget that Soleimani was a combatant within a combat zone. There is no doubt that if the Iranians had the opportunity to eliminate someone similar in the United States, they would.

This is part of the rhythm of the conflict in which we are trapped in the Middle East. I don't think this will escalate until it becomes World War III.

And now that?

Now, Iran is definitely not going to sit down and negotiate.

That is no reason not to have executed the attack: to be frank, Soleimani was looking for him.

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                    Iran promised to avenge the attack on its highest ranking commander.

There was blood of American soldiers on their hands and terrorized large portions of the Middle East for more than a decade. That Trump wanted to negotiate with Iran does not mean that he should not eliminate Soleimani.

I don't think he did it thinking in political terms, I think he wanted to avoid this situation because, if not, he would have done it before. But, politically speaking, this makes him seem a strong leader among his supporters.

What about the promise to leave the Middle East?

Trump doesn't even like US troops in Germany, so the idea of ​​putting military in Iran in an election year is, I think, inconceivable.

But you also have to show that the United States is only shaken to some extent.

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