US President Donald Trump will suffer a “historic defeat” in next November’s general election, in which the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic will take its toll, warns a predictive model developed by Oxford Economics.
This British think tank starts from a scenario of recession in the United States in which the increase in unemployment and inflation will prevent the reelection of the Republican president, who would obtain only 35% of the votes in those elections, compared to 55% forecast by Oxford Economics before COVID-19.
“It would take an economic miracle for the results to favor Trump,” says the report, which assumes that the US economy will not have recovered from the impact of the coronavirus by next fall.
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So, he believes that the North American economy will be “in worse conditions than in the worst moment of the Great Depression”, with unemployment above 13%.
“A higher than peak peak unemployment rate during the global financial crisis, a 6% drop in household income from pre-virus levels and temporary deflation will make the economy an almost insurmountable obstacle for Trump in November “adds the report.
In this context, Oxford Economics considers that the Democratic Party is heading towards a “clear victory”, although its percentage of votes will depend on the participation in the polls and the evolution of the pandemic.
Observers recall that the predictive model of this British research institute has been successful in 16 of the last 18 elections in the United States, with only two failures in 1968 and 1976.
