The Chances Of Winning The Oscar Of Each Nominated Movie

On February 9, the great movie night is celebrated with the 92 Oscar Awards ceremony. A gala that will again dispense with the figure of the presenter to give more prominence to its nominees (and incidentally avoid added criticism) and where several films start as favorites for the top prize. This year there is something for everyone. From the candidate of the classic taste of the Academy to options that could pose a risk more than right if they dare to reward them. That is why we have thought about what characteristics of each film nominated for best film could convince academics. It is not a forecast, but to imagine if any movie surprises, why it would be.Joker (Warner Bros.), Jojo Rabbit (Courtesy of 20th Century Fox), Parasites (Courtesy of The Audiovisual Adventure), Little Women (Wilson Webb; © 2019 CTMG, Inc. All Rights Reserved.), Le Mans 66 (Merrick Morton; TM and © 2019 Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation. All rights reserved), Once Upon a Time in … Hollywood (Andrew Cooper, © 2018 CTMG, Inc. All Rights Reserved), The Irish (Netflix), Story of a Marriage (Wilson Webb; Netflix), 1917 (Francois Duhamel / Universal Pictures and DreamWorks Pictures) More than 1917 could rise at the dawn of Monday with the top prize no doubts. Judging by his success in the union awards circuit – whose members mostly belong to the Academy – one could say that Sam Mendes has the Oscar almost in his hands. But parasites too. Joker could give the note. Even Once upon a time in … Hollywood could give Quentin Tarantino the first statuette for best film of his career. Not forgetting that the story of a marriage or He could claim revenge after being relegated in many awards, while a victory of Jojo Rabbit would change history. Everything can happen, so we discuss with my partner Pedro J. García why everyone has options or none. BE ONCE ONCE IN … HOLLYWOOD It is no secret that the Academy feels weakness for Quentin Tarantino. The acclaimed Knoxville filmmaker has two Oscar awards to his credit, both for his work as a screenwriter (Pulp Fiction and Django unchained), but he has never taken the statuette as a director or better film. This year marks his third nomination in the leadership category with Once Upon a Time in … Hollywood, which has garnered nothing more and nothing less than 10 nominations (equaling 1917 and The Irish and only behind Joker, who is 11). Is this the year in which the statuette is finally taken in the main categories? Tarantino’s ninth film has strong competitors, but his number of nominations and his success in the Golden Globes, where he won the Best Film awards Comedy or Musical, Best Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor for Brad Pitt, put her in the middle of the list and if the night decides to take an unexpected turn, it could surprise. Tarantino has expressed on many occasions his intention to direct a tenth and final film before retiring. Will the Academy wait to give him the Oscar as a farewell gift or will he do it before, with the most nominated film of his career? Why can he surprise? Because Once Upon a Time in … Hollywood is a love letter to the cinema and a celebration of Hollywood as a factory of dreams and opportunities, so voters could consider it a very appropriate winner. But if this does not happen, we know that it will not go empty, since the Oscar of Brad Pitt is practically assured after having taken all the awards and for having in his category. (Pedro J. García) 1917 There are those who would say that 1917 already has the Oscar under his arm. After all, the stories of war heroism (even if they are British here) have always been the approval of the Academy (Schindler’s List, In Hostile Land, Platoon, The Hunter, Patton, The Bridge over the River Kwai are some winning examples ). Not only because at the technical level – clothing, choreography, set design, photography – they are a huge challenge, but because they represent humanity divided among its most horrible miseries against its most extreme virtues (as it is to give one’s life for others). Sam Mendes’ tape follows the mission of two soldiers in World War I who must warn a platoon that the attack they are about to perpetrate against the Germans is an ambush. Like Birdman – winner of the best film in 2015 – the film is shot in a single sequence shot (or two, due to the only cut in the middle of the story), following the mission in real time and transmitting the adrenaline and danger War constant. Why could I win? Because it has not only devastated the awards season and the galas of most unions – indicating an obvious favoritism in Hollywood – but because it is a dramatic and technical feat in every way. 1917 shines where you look at it. The soundtrack composed of a genius like Thomas Newman (nominated for 15 Oscar Awards and still won none!) Spreads the intensity of the footage becoming a protagonist in the story. Like the incredible photograph of Roger Deakins (almost certain winner) and an address by Sam Mendes that shows that collaboration is the key to a good director. The Briton lets each department shine on its own, serving as a choreographer of a story that maintains an in crescendo rhythm, which does not fall within the easy patriotism of the genre, to allow itself to tell a drama that delves into the courage of the human being. 1917 is simply brilliant and if it does not win, it will be because someone else surprises. It wouldn’t even be surprising if it ended up being the production with the most statuettes of the night (part with 10 nominations). (Valeria Martinez) Read moreJOKERAy … Joker, Joker. If we had made this list in October, when the hype was in the clouds, we would surely have said it was the definitive winner. And this is because Joker is an immediate impulse movie. It is impossible to see it and not react instantly. The sensations found survive for days, turning us inside with their slap criticism of social reality. But – and there is a but – emotions calm down, and little by little we begin to digest it, realizing that, once time has passed, its brilliance begins to fade. Not only because we begin to realize that, as a whole, we will only remember Joaquin Phoenix’s performance forever, but also because the déjà vu begin to make a dent, discovering that the originality we saw on the screen was superficial. movie made to shake us inside manages to cloud our minds at first, but over time the memories come back and we begin to see Joker more as a tribute to Martin Scorsese or as the great Joaquin Phoenix movie than as a product in itself. And that is why many believe that Todd Phillips’s place in the best director category should be taken by Greta Gerwig. That said, Joker will arrive at the ceremony being the most nominated film of the year with 11 nominations, although the most assured is Joaquin Phoenix’s best actor. Could I win the Oscar for best film? Yes, and I explain why. Despite all the above, the film industry is fascinated with tape. On the one hand, because it shows that the genre of comics continues to find different ways to express themselves and continue kneading millions around the world giving more security to those who continue to bet on it (let’s not forget that even Bradley Cooper joined fashion and is one of its producers). To give him the Oscar would cement that eagerness of business with the final approval of the industry. But it would also be a applauded risk – not as much as if they reward parasites. Joker could win by being a risky movie that knows how to play his cards to wake the viewer, give us an emotional jolt and send us home with a conscience made a mess. If he wins, he would mark a before and after in the history of the Academy. (Valeria Martinez) PARÁSITOSY we arrived at the film that could destroy the most conservative pools of the night. Even if I did, it wouldn’t be exactly a surprise. Parasites is, without a doubt, one of the greatest cinematographic phenomena of the year worldwide. This comic thriller directed by Bong Joon-ho (Memories of Murder, The Host) has swept the public and critics, accumulating awards wherever it has gone: Golden Globes, BAFTA, SAG, a multitude of critic circles … The list is endless. His Oscar for Best International Film (formerly known as Non-English Speaking Film) is guaranteed, relegating our Pedro Almodóvar and his Pain and Glory to second place in the category. But many analysts and moviegoers give the victory of Parasites in Best Film as a strong possibility. In the final stretch of the race, the forecasts place Sam Mendes as winner of 1917, but the South Korean film could give the bell. It would certainly be a shocking decision that would break the tradition of the Academy, which in the last twenty years has not risked too much by naming the winners, tapes that have often fallen into oblivion. If Parasites won the grand prize of the night, it would be the The first non-English-speaking film to achieve it in the 92-year history of the most important film awards. Faced with criticism for their conservatism, it would not be surprising if voters have decided to show that they are able to get out of their gridded way of understanding cinema to re-tune with the public and reward something different. Why can you win? Because in addition to being an acid criticism of class struggle and privilege, it is equally as impressive as fun and unpredictable. It is a wild but elegant work that would demonstrate a courage in the Academy that has long shone by its absence. Although 1917 is a great movie, the satire on capitalism, the difference in classes and the privilege of Parasites represents much better the moment in which we live. In addition to being for many the movie of the year. (Pedro J. García) THE IRISH When The Irish landed on Netflix at the end of November, more than one said: “Here is the Oscar winner.” But then came the criticism, the lack of awards and the rise of the history of a marriage and 1917. It is one of the most forgotten films in terms of awards is when it is a true masterpiece and example of good cinema. It is likely that oblivion is unconscious because there are other more dynamic productions in competition, but we cannot rule out the opposite. Let’s not forget that The Irish is a Netflix movie. It’s “the” movie that puts the giant streaming among the biggest studios in Hollywood. If they were to reward it, they would be opening the door wide to the online market. They already refused last year by not rewarding Rome as the best film, and it would not be surprising if The Irishman is simply repeating the same story. Why could he win? It is difficult to answer this question. Because it is more than certain that it will not. The Academy will have nominated ten candidates, but from there to go with a statuette is another song. I would even dare to suggest that he will leave without any. But if we put this forecast aside, The Irish should win because it is a masterpiece and an example that old-school cinema continues to make us vibrate. It shows that making films is a talent, that Martin Scorsese can retire tomorrow and will have culminated his career at the top. Because it is an epic movie, taken care of in detail, with moments to chew slowly and digest over time. (Valeria Martínez) LE MANS ’66 With excellent reviews, more than € 200 million worldwide collection (half at the US box office) and the public’s approval, Le Mans’ 66 can be officially declared a success. And despite this, the film directed by James Mangold has barely been part of the cinephile conversation of the past year. Her unquestionable merits have been recognized by the Academy with four Oscar nominations, including the Best Film, but even so, almost no one remembers her at the time of making her pool. It is like an invisible nominee, a curious phenomenon that perhaps can be explained by the openly traditional nature of the proposal, a sports film based on a real event and told with respect, technical expertise and Hollywood drama. And we all know how much Oscar voters like biopics. So much so that almost every year one sneaks into the main category, getting to take it several times (A wonderful mind, The King’s speech, Twelve years of slavery …). However, in the case of Le Mans ’66 As in the case of so many other biographical films, his presence in the Oscar is merely testimonial, the reward for a job well done. Beyond that, the film about racing driver Ken Miles and the rivalry between Ford and Ferrari has virtually no chance of winning the biggest prize of the night. Nor does Christian Bale (excellent as always) have anything to do with the favorite to take home the Oscar for Best Actor, Joaquin Phoenix. Le Mans ’66 is a good movie, but it was never meant to win the race. (Pedro J. García) HISTORY OF A MARRIAGE If it were not because 1917 is the most popular in the pools, I confess that this marital drama of Noah Baumbach is my personal favorite. History of a marriage delves us into the pains, grudges but also in the love they inhabit in the separation of a couple. He tells us about the transition of love, that feeling that does not die but mutates, changes without sometimes realizing it. If there was an Oscar for the best couple, that would undoubtedly be for its protagonists. Scarlett Johansson and Adam Driver shine with a chemistry that crosses the screen, spreading their frustrations and feelings through tears, laughter, songs and silences (both are nominated). Why could I win? If he won it would be an absolute surprise due to the weight of other favorites such as 1917 and Parasites. But if he won it would be for his dramatic power. For being one of the best examples of Noah Baumbach’s cinema, intimate, close, human, subtle and thoughtful. A drama to remember with a story that will never go out of style. (Valeria Martinez) WOMEN After numerous film and television adaptations over time, it seemed that Little Women could no longer be counted, but then Greta Gerwig arrived and showed us otherwise. His version of the popular novel by Louisa May Alcott has turned out to be one of the most acclaimed films of the season, in addition to exceeding expectations at the box office. The film starring a stellar cast headed by Saoirse Ronan, with whom he repeats after his debut opera, Lady Bird, has six nominations. But among them is not the Best Address, a non-exempt decision of controversy that has unleashed a wave of criticism of the Academy for re-nominating only men in this category (only five women have been nominated, including Gerwig herself for her previous work). Despite being nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay , Gerwig’s absence in the list of Oscar-nominated directors reduces the chances of seeing Little Women crowning himself as the best film, although we must not rule it out completely. Why could I surprise? Because, after all, it is a practically round work in all its aspects, as feminist as it is essential, with a wonderful direction of actors, in addition to having liked it in general. Of course, just in case, we do not count on it. Unless the Academy decides to compensate Gerwig for the emptiness in the management category by giving him in return the main prize, something unlikely, if not impossible, Little Women does not have too many possibilities. (Pedro J. García) JOJO RABBITIf he won … how I would like to! If this satire on Adolf Hitler were to win the Oscar for best film, it would be an event. But if Charles Chaplin did not do it with The Great Dictator in 1941 (in a ceremony that refused to reward her by giving Rebeca Alfred Hitchcock the maximum statuette), I doubt Taika Waititi will get it. Let’s recognize that Jojo Rabbit is not the best movie of the nine nominees, being rather an unexpected wild card that completes the category. Despite being a magnificent risk in Thor’s director’s career: Ragnarok – even assuming the role of the Nazi dictator as a child reflection of a German child during World War II – the film has it harder than any to convince the majority of voters. Why? Because Jojo Rabbit is a movie that divides. Either you love it or you hate it, but it doesn’t leave you indifferent. And these types of bets tend to have it harder when it comes to getting majority approval. However, the characteristics that would make her the winner lie in the mischievousness of the Waititi script to enter a part of the story rarely portrayed in cinema (the Nazi youth training camps) to reveal itself in the third act as a true emotional drama. (Valeria Martinez) More stories that may interest you: