The vast majority of Mexicans in Mexico and especially those who live in the United States, would welcome the fact that Donald Trump is prosecuted and removed from the post of president. In words and deeds, his stance towards our country has been deeply hostile and with continuous claims to humiliate us. If the inquiries that the congressional intelligence committee has begun, the current vice president Mike Pence would occupy the White House until a new president is elected. Pence himself could be a candidate for the presidency if he is running. An ultraconservative man would arrive at the Oval Office who, he has declared, intends that the Constitution and the precepts of the Bible be observed in a parity manner. But in any case it would be highly unlikely, almost impossible, for Trump to succeed in his constant belligerence towards Mexico and the Mexicans.
It is worth doing these calculations, but the reality of things is that the possibility of Donald Trump being defenestrated from the White House is very remote. It is true that the accusations that weigh on Trump are more serious than those that at the time brought Richard Nixon and William Clinton to a political trial. The first spied the headquarters of the Democrats at the Watergate Hotel and the second lied under oath regarding his relationship with Monica Lewinsky. Mr. Trump has gone further by using foreign policy at his command to try to harm the pointer in the polls, Joe Biden. He put at his personal disposal the instruments of the state, specifically the military aid to Ukraine, as a currency to obtain evidence that a son of Biden received support from his father, then vice president, to boost his business in that country. More than that, he sent his personal lawyer, Rudolf Giuliani to tie the agreement with the Ukrainian president.
In sum, if these elements were confirmed, there would be sufficient arguments to initiate a defenestration trial against Trump. However, to initiate the procedure, in addition to strong evidence, the majority vote in the house of representatives and two-thirds of the senators, which would become the jury, is required. In the lower house the Democrats have a majority, but not in the Senate.RELATED
The leader of Congress, Democrat Nancy Pelosi, is more than aware of how difficult it is in practice to dismiss a president. He has had no choice but to endorse the start of the procedure because using the military aid approved by Congress to try to stain an opposition candidate is a clear form of abuse in the powers and the exercise of power by the president. Trump But at the same time he is equally aware that if the impeachment fails, Trump and the Republicans will be strengthened in the face of next year's elections. In fact, there is a risk that Trump will turn the page and argue that it is the Democrats who use the powers of the state to hinder his re-election. And for that, he will constantly remember that special prosecutor Robert Mueller was unable to obtain strong evidence that he had colluded with the Russians to win the 2016 elections.
Now the matter is different and probably more serious. In the first case, Trump could always argue that he did not incite the Russians to support him in his electoral triumph. In the case of Ukraine, it was he who motivated a foreign government to investigate a political adversary to violate his candidacy.
Executive Director General of the Aspen Institute